Tri-Cities: Not too hot, not too cold, but just right.

Sustainable growth is the goal, but what does that mean? A growth rate that is not too hot and not too cold, but just right.

A population growth of 5%-10% per decade is required for a healthy, sustainable economy without growth-related issues like traffic, crime, and erosion of quality of life.

The Census Bureau just released its July 1, 2022, population estimates by county.

Tri-Cities metro grew at a rate of 8.4% if the current rate holds true for the rest of the decade. That’s right in the middle of the sweet spot.

But it also matters how that population growth is distributed. Washington County (TN) has been the epicenter of recent population growth. As a result, residents of Jonesborough and Gray are experiencing growth-related pressures and it seems that I-26 is getting more congested between Johnson City and Kingsport. GPS users are getting more skilled at finding alternatives to interstate backups, using backroads as workarounds.

Washington County (TN)’s growth rate translates to 11.9% if it continues through 2030, while Hawkins County (TN) is 11.4% and Sullivan County (TN) is 8.4%. Straddling the border of Hawkins & Sullivan–is Kingsport.

Carter County (TN) and Washington County (VA) grew slightly.

Scott County (VA), Unicoi County (TN), and Bristol (VA) shrank.

Zooming out to the Appalachian Highlands region of Tennessee, Virginia, Kentucky & Carolina, tells a different story. While the Tri-Cities Metro (a subset of the Appalachian Highlands) grew 1.68% in two years, the region itself only grew a total of 0.34%.

Some rural counties like Dickenson (VA) and Leslie (KY) are poised to shrink by -14.3% and -20.1%, which will further strain their local economies.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom. Some other rural counties, like Hancock (TN) and Yancey (NC) are set to grow by 13.9% and 9.25%, respectively.

The transformational work in many small towns and rural counties is commendable. Places like St. Paul, Big Stone Gap, Pennington Gap, Whitesburg, and Pikeville are working hard to reinvent themselves. Let’s hope that translates into sustainable population growth. After all, our region is depending on it.