Not borne from the pandemic

Many believe that “MoveTo Kingsport” is a pandemic era program, but it actually began as a strategic response to data shared at the Mayor’s 1999 Economic Summit that warned of our region’s impending status as a ‘rustbelt’ if we did not take action.

City leaders were encouraged by a nationally recognized expert to diversify their non-traditional economic development efforts because more than one third of all jobs were in the manufacturing sector.

So, they doubled down on new initiatives like workforce development, small business, entrepreneurship, conventions, sports tourism, redevelopment of downtown and commercial districts, and finally marketing the benefits of living here, i.e. “Move To Kingsport”.

Jeff Fleming was at that Economic Summit in 1999 and worked with the Move To Kingsport program from the very beginning. He was so convinced of the program’s merit; he continues even though he retired in 2019.

Just as that economic expert warned 21 years earlier, the 2020 Census revealed that 25 of 31 counties in the Appalachian Highlands region of Tennessee, Virginia, Kentucky, and North Carolina lost population. There were more deaths than births. A declining population means a declining economy, closing schools, closing hospitals, and a negative economic outlook.

But Kingsport was an exception to that rule.

For a region to remain economically viable, a population growth of 5% to 10% per decade is required.

The City of Kingsport grew 15% while Sullivan County only grew 0.9% and Hawkins County declined by -0.2%. Approximately half of Kingsport’s growth can be attributed to annexation, but that does not affect county totals because city residents are also counted in the county total.

Towns near Kingsport, like Church Hill and Mount Carmel, grew as well, in contrast to the remainder of Hawkins County, which declined.

During the pandemic period, places like Kingsport were ‘discovered’ and became top destinations for relocation, meaning those that are large enough to have amenities like great schools, an airport, and robust healthcare, but small enough to avoid violent crime and high housing costs. Tennessee’s status as one of the only states without an income tax was icing on the cake.

In fact, the Wall Street Journal and Realtor.com named Johnson City and Kingsport-Bristol to its top emerging markets list—a recognition that was not on the radar in 1999.

In 2022, 872 families from 49 states moved to Kingsport from outside the region (greater than 35 miles away). See map below.

Why measure 35 miles? Because rearranging people within the same metropolitan area is not growing the base. It takes true newcomers to grow the economy.

The top state of origin for Kingsport’s newcomers has always been Tennessee. That’s right, other places in Tennessee further away than Greeneville. Places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Nashville.

What’s even more surprising is that in 2022 California usurped Florida as the #2 state for inbound newcomers. 12% of all Kingsport newcomers came from California, while 7% came from Florida. Neither California nor Florida are contiguous states, so these moves didn’t just happen by accident.  They were the result of careful research and deliberation.

And the beneficiary wasn’t just the City of Kingsport, 30% moved to locations outside the city limits.

The program operates on a modest budget that is funded 37% by the City of Kingsport and 63% by private sponsors, fundraisers, and advertising revenue.

What does the future hold?

“We can advertise our regional assets, but when people respond we need places to house them,” explained Jeff Fleming, Move To Kingsport relocation manager.

Residential relocation is totally dependent on the availability of housing.

And housing is dependent on the availability of infrastructure and land.

“With changes to Tennessee’s annexation laws, something’s got to give if our region is to grow sustainably,” he explained.

“Infill redevelopment and higher density will be more important than ever, but it cannot sustain the region.”

“The city(ies) and county(ies) need to have a conversation about housing growth—or lack thereof.”

“Our collective futures depend on it.”  

This column originally appeared in the Kingsport Times-News Progress Edition, March 12, 2023.